RSA and ECC are vulnerable to quantum attacks

The Claim

“RSA and elliptic curve cryptography (ECC) will be broken by quantum computers.”

The Verdict: FACT

This is one of the most well-established results in quantum computing. Shor’s algorithm, published by Peter Shor in 1994, provides a polynomial-time quantum algorithm for:

Integer factorization - breaks RSA
Discrete logarithm problem - breaks Diffie-Hellman and DSA
Elliptic curve discrete logarithm - breaks ECDSA and ECDH

The Evidence

Mathematical Proof

Shor’s algorithm is not speculative - it’s a mathematically proven algorithm. Given a sufficiently large, fault-tolerant quantum computer, RSA and ECC will be broken. The only questions are:

When will such quantum computers exist?
What key sizes will be vulnerable first?

NIST Recognition

NIST has explicitly acknowledged this threat and has completed a multi-year process to standardize post-quantum cryptographic algorithms. In August 2024, NIST published:

ML-KEM (FIPS 203) - Key encapsulation mechanism
ML-DSA (FIPS 204) - Digital signature algorithm
SLH-DSA (FIPS 205) - Stateless hash-based signatures

Timeline Uncertainty

While the threat is fact, the timeline remains uncertain. Current quantum computers have hundreds to thousands of noisy qubits. Breaking RSA-2048 would require millions of error-corrected logical qubits. Estimates range from 10 to 30+ years.

What This Means

Key Takeaways

RSA and ECC will be broken - this is mathematical fact
The timeline is uncertain but measured in years to decades, not months
Post-quantum alternatives are already standardized and available
Organizations should begin planning their migration now
Data encrypted today may be vulnerable to “harvest now, decrypt later” attacks

References

Shor, P. (1994). “Algorithms for quantum computation: discrete logarithms and factoring”
NIST Post-Quantum Cryptography Standardization
NIST FIPS 203, 204, 205 (August 2024)