Quantum computers will break all encryption by 2030
While quantum computing poses real threats to some cryptographic systems, claims of imminent total cryptographic collapse are overblown. Post-quantum cryptography standards are already being deployed.
The Claim
“Quantum computers will break all encryption by 2030, making all digital communications insecure.”
The Verdict: FUD
This claim contains several misleading elements that exaggerate the threat while ignoring significant developments in cryptography.
What’s Wrong With This Claim
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Not “all encryption” - Symmetric encryption (like AES) is largely quantum-resistant. Grover’s algorithm only halves the effective key length.
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2030 is unlikely - Most credible estimates place cryptographically-relevant quantum computers at 10-20+ years away.
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Post-quantum solutions exist - NIST has already standardized post-quantum algorithms (ML-KEM, ML-DSA, SLH-DSA).
The Reality
Quantum computers do pose a genuine long-term threat to current public-key cryptography. However:
- The timeline is highly uncertain
- Migration to post-quantum cryptography is already underway
- “Harvest now, decrypt later” is the more immediate concern
What You Should Do
- Don’t panic
- Do start planning your PQC migration
- Prioritize systems with long-term confidentiality requirements
Verdict: FUD - The threat is real but the timeline and scope are exaggerated.